The Waxing and Waning of Fear Influence the Control of Vector-Borne Diseases

Jiao, Jing

Item

The Waxing and Waning of Fear Influence the Control of Vector-Borne Diseases

Jiao, Jing

Date

2025-03-06

Abstract

One major challenge in preventing infectious diseases comes from human control behaviors. In the context of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), I explored how the waxing and waning of a human psychological emotion—fear—can generate diverse control actions, which, in turn, influence disease dynamics. Fear may diminish over time after being triggered but can also be reinforced when new triggers emerge. By integrating fear dynamics into a generic Ross–MacDonald model tailored for the Zika virus, I found that an increase in initial fear can enhance control efforts, thereby reducing the number of infected individuals and deaths. Once initial fear becomes strong enough to deplete the mosquito population, any further increase in fear no longer impacts disease dynamics. When initial fear is at an intermediate level, the increase in disease caused by greater decay in fear can be counterbalanced by increasing the frequency of fear triggers. Interestingly, when the control period is short and initial fear is at an intermediate level, increasing the frequency of fear reinforcement can lead to a “hydra effect”, which increases disease transmission. These findings help explain variations in human control efforts and provide insights for developing more effective disease control strategies that account for the fear dynamics of local communities. This work also contributes to advancing the theory at the intersection of human behavior, disease ecology, and epidemiology.