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THE EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION IN THE ERA OF PANDEMIC, WAR, AND SANCTIONS: CRISIS OR OPPORTUNITY?
Wornat, Kael
Wornat, Kael
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2024-05-19
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Abstract
The COIVD pandemic and the war in Ukraine have had major implications on trade relations within the Eurasian Economic Union. Due to the recency of both events, previous research has primarily explored the overall benefits and drawbacks that membership within the EaEU has provided its members. Within my research, I develop a gravity model of trade based on the normal period of 2010-2019 to determine a predicted value of trade for each EaEU member country over the years 2020-2022, in which both major international events occur. The predicted values are measured against the actual values to measure the level of integration that occurs within the EaEU during the COVID pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Smaller economies within the EaEU experience significant levels of integration, while larger economies are more negatively impacted by COVID pandemic and war in Ukraine.