The Presidential Pendulum: Why It Is So Rare That a Party Holds the Presidency For Three Consecutive Terms

Abstract

In the past 70 years, there has only been one instance of a major political party winning three consecutive presidential elections in the United States. The vast majority of elections follow a pattern of two terms by one party, followed by two terms by the other party. This phenomenon-what I will call "The Presidential Pendulum"-is severely understudied in the current literature. I employ a multi-method approach to study the pendulum, combining standard regression analysis with a selective case study of deviant elections. The results suggests that the general public may have a preference for regular alternation of the party in power.