Who We've Been All Along: Trends in Partisan Ambivalence

Abstract

When do people change their minds on politics? This paper extends research on partisan ambivalence to the 2012 and 2016 U.S. presidential elections, using regression analysis on American National Election Studies data and an additional original survey from April 2017. It controls for various demographic factors to identify the effects of party and election cycle on ambivalence, a willingness to consider alternative viewpoints arising from conflict between long-term identity and short-term reactions. Results demonstrate that the 2016 cycle produced greater ambivalence than 2012, but that the increase was the same for Democrats and Republicans, although Republicans in general exhibit more ambivalence. They also show that ambivalence had declined five months after the 2016 election, which means that the absence of campaign coverage and immediate emotional salience leads to less internal conflict and thus a shift over time back to entrenched political views and away from partisan ambivalence.