| Abstract | The political environment in America experienced a phenomenal change in the summer of 2022 when the Supreme Court decided to overturn the federally-protected right to abortion, instead turning it to the states to legislate. This study answers the following questions: Are the political contextual factors that typically affect Republican women still relevant today, given the current abortion climate post-Dobbs? Republican women have been consistently underrepresented in elected office, but recently more conservative women are being elected and taking on women?s issues which are increasingly relevant among many voters. By relying on an extensive examination of the academic literature of factors that normally affect Republican women, my study was conducted to test the hypothesis that the impact of the district, political, and contextual variables in the post-Dobbs electoral environment uniquely impacts the electoral success of Republican women. The Dobbs decision came about in the midst of the midterm elections in full swing for Congress, offering a unique opportunity to observe how Republican women approached one of the more divisive and polarizing issues today. In reality, the electoral environments for the 82 female Republican candidates for the House of Representatives revealed that while incumbency, campaign expenditures, and partisanship of districts were all significant, there were political contextual factors that differed across districts and uniquely impacted electoral success. Based on the inferential statistics, I infer these changes in the electoral environments are due to the contemporary abortion climate that exists from the Dobbs decision. There are limitations to this study due to the timely nature of the Dobbs decision and the time of this study being conducted. However, this study demonstrates the importance of examining the ways in which important social and political issues can manifest uniquely for Republican women, and if the implications may impact the slow but continual electoral success of this underrepresented population. |
